opportunity is upon us

After a half-decade absence from Syria, I anxiously returned home only to find myself stuck in unimaginable traffic, admiring a slew of new buildings and shopping malls that had popped up all over the capital and its surrounding areas on my way home from Damascus International Airport. This was just the initial impression the country imparted; one that complemented the information that was abundantly available via the Internet on the other side of the world. Although I had made a concerted effort to stay up to date with Syria’s socio-economic events, driving through Damascus’ streets first-hand led me to the immediate conclusion that although much had changed, some things were just as I had left them.

Since I have been back, I have been able to take in a good deal of what has been accomplished as Syria makes progress towards long-awaited and much needed economic reforms. During the years of my stay abroad, the steady liberalization of Syria’s centrally-planned markets had begun to take place and many new business opportunities came into existence that were simply not available in the past. Some state-controlled industries have begun to privatize and this too injected new life into Syria’s economic development. Sectors that were once government monopolies have been opened to private sector investment, and now competition is being promoted in an effort to provide quality services to a larger cross-section of the population. In addition to market reforms, regulatory reforms have changed the way goods as well as money low in and out of the Syrian economy. The government has eased restrictions on foreign investment and has enabled multinational companies to own majority shares in their Syrian ventures. Even customs laws have been altered to allow a significantly more varied selection of products to be imported into the country. These are clear signs that Syria’s inevitable integration into the global economy is being welcomed and the benefits to both Syria as well as the countries that deal with it are being explored.

One example of a sector that has benefited immensely from this wave of reform is the banking sector. What was once solely the Central Bank of Syria’s domain is now a landscape of a dozen or so banks that offer both traditional and Islamic banking services. Massive oversubscription in the initial public offerings of these banks (close to 1000% for BEMO Saudi Bank and over 500% for Cham Islamic Bank for example) have signaled both the population’s readiness to flood investment avenues with capital and personal savings as well as given observers an idea of the size of the void that has been filled by this one sector.

Much of Syria’s new-found economic activity has been top-down investment that will eventually induce a positive trickle-down effect to the middle and lower classes. We cannot and should not, however, ignore or neglect investments that target these classes directly. Such projects may have a potentially lower initial return on investment and seem less enticing to Syria’s movers and shakers, but they will nonetheless form the foundation that all business and socioeconomic development will build upon.

Amidst all the positive buzz surrounding this current wave of investment and liberalization is the fact that sustainable development should not leave anyone behind; infrastructure and the satisfaction of basic needs and services must be extended at least concurrently with the rest of the country’s entrepreneurial and deregulatory activity.

A significant portion of the population still lives in poverty and we must not sweep this issue under the proverbial rug, but rather must focus on finding a productive solution that is beneficial to all involved. It is important to keep in mind that the gap between the rich and poor of Syria is widening and although pure capitalist theory’s protagonists invoke the aforementioned trickle down effect as a proven solution that will close this gap, the process may take too long to stop the resulting immediate and perhaps irrevocable harm that would affect the lower economic strata. As the bottom of Syria’s socio-economic pyramid becomes more populous, it will be harder to bring this cross-section of society economically closer to the middle and upper classes. Syria’s relatively high population growth rate (approx. 2.6% over the past 5 years) and the relatively young age makeup (es-timated 2/3 of the population under the age of 35) present both an opportunity for growth for those willing to address these issues through investment as well as a problem in terms of satisfying de-mand while keeping prices affordable.

It is crucial that we make an effort to in-vest in the Syrian citizen, for today’s chil-dren are tomorrow’s hope. The recent establishment of private universities that aim to bring accountability and quality services to education is one such example of this type of long-term investment strat-egy. The use of information technology and telecommunication connectivity to foster civil society and enable that form of development is another example that needs to be further encouraged.

We are witnessing the furious expansion of a consumer culture in Syria’s ledgling and as of yet not fully sustainable econ-omy. The population may not be able to absorb the current growth in consumer spending with the wage base and dispos-able income that the average citizen pos-sesses. Today, mobile phone charges, car payments and costly, inconsistent Internet services account for the majority of the average Syrian’s income; therefore, unless per capita GDP and the standard of living increase at a proportionate rate to spend-ing habits, the current trend could be problematic. This is not to say that these services are not indicia of socio-economic development and progress, because they are, but it shows that we may be getting ahead of ourselves and spending beyond our capabilities. High unemployment, sig-niicant inlation and soaring real estate prices are already providing an insight on the perils of the road ahead, not to men-tion the affect these factors are having on new entrepreneurial enterprises.

For the near future, short-term compro-mise and careful planning may need to be implemented to ensure long-term sta-bility and sustainable growth. The Syr-ian economy needs to take the current opportunity presented by government protectionism and gradual liberaliza-tion to strengthen and irmly establish local industry and businesses.

Once the global loodgates are opened, forces like the WTO, in addition to competition and capital inlux from the Arab Gulf region and the EU, will have tremendous effects on average businesses.

Now is the time for Syria to make the cor-rect investment and development deci-sions so that we can do it right this irst time around. We have had the beneit of learning from numerous examples the world has given us concerning the transi-tion from centralized planning to liberal market-based economies. We must truly take advantage of this window of oppor-tunity to improve our standard of living and implement what we have learned. We must counteract the “brain-drain” that has aflicted our society with the creation of new jobs that can provide a creative and inancial outlet for all the educated Syrians that want to return home to the possibility of beneiting their country. Let us invest in the Syrian citizen here at home and provide an environment that is conducive to progress. The outlook is very positive, it’s just up to us to make it happen… and together, we can.